Friday, September 7, 2012

Debt crisis: live

The OECD has cut the UK's growth forecast for this year from 0.5pc to -0.7pc.

It has also urged the ECB to cut interest rates and buy government bonds. Adds that disrupted monetary policy transmission in the euro area raises break-up risks.

OECD expects Germany to enter a double-dip recession this year with growth of -0.5p cin Q3 and -0.8pc in Q4.

09.52 Spain has sold ?1.43bn of 2015 bonds at an average yield of 2.676pc versus 5.086 at previous auction, ?1.39bn of 2016 bonds at 4.603pc versus 5.971pc previously. Ten-year yield down 16 basis points to 6.29pc.

Nicholas Spiro at Spiro Sovereign Strategy:

Quote Sentiment-wise, this was not so much a Spanish debt auction as a preliminary verdict on the ECB's soon-to-be-unveiled bond-buying plan. The positive result of today's auction, with the full amount sold and a sharp fall in the yields on all three maturities, has very little to do with what's going on in Spain. This is the "Draghi effect" at work. Right now, Spanish and Italian debt markets are benefiting from expectations that the ECB will intervene forcefully to bring down yields on shorter-dated eurozone peripheral paper.

09.45 Top officials from Pacific Rim countries have expressed alarm the worsening world economic outlook and called for further action to thwart growing trade protectionism. A joint statement from the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum said:

QuoteWe note with concern the IMF's downward projection for global economic growth for this and next year and the rise in protectionist instances around the world.

09.30 Gold has surged above $1,700 this morning. It's at its highest level since March. Investors seemingly have no faith in Draghi to ease the crisis today.

09.26 European Union Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier has said he expects growth in Europe this year.

09.15 Here's an ominous chart from Morgan Stanley:

09.10 Meanwhile, the neofascist Golden Dawn party has increased its popularity among Greek voters, an opinion poll has showed.

Nikolaos Michaloliakos, leader of the far-right Golden Dawn

According to a Pulse survey, in the To Podiki newspaper, support for Golden Dawn stood at 10.5pc, placing it at third place behind coalition leader New Democracy (25pc) and the hard-left SYRIZA opposition party (24pc).

The previously dominant PASOK socialists have dropped to fourth place with 8pc of the vote.

08.42 Ahead of that Mario Draghi decision on bond-buying later today, a new poll has shown that nearly a third of Germans have no idea who the ECB president is. And nearly one in two don't trust him.

In the survey by Forsa for Stern magazine, 30pc of respondents said they had little trust in the ECB president, while 12pc said they had none at all.

Some 18pc said they held Draghi in esteem, while a further 31pc said they did not know him and 9pc had no opinion.

08.39 Sweden has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25pc. In a statement the central bank said:

Quote To avoid inflation becoming too weak in the future, central bank directors decided to reduce its reference rate.

08.24 Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, has warned that long-term unemployment is rising fast in the EU, and that some parts on the union face a "social emergency crisis".

08.13 Spanish politician Jose Garcia-Margallo has compared the eurozone debt crisis with the sinking of the Titanic.

Is Merkel in the Kate WInslet role?

08.02 European markets are open:

FTSE 100 +0.3pc

CAC +0.4pc

DAX +0.5pc

IBEX +0.7pc

MIB +0.7pc

08.01 Also on the agenda today: the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will announce its decision on interest rates and QE at noon. Both are expected to be kept on hold.

07.59 In his daily email, Telegraph head of business Damian Reece has taken a closer look at Draghi's expected announcement.

All eyes will be on Mario Draghi at lunchtime when he reveals the detail of his plan to help curb the eurozone crisis. As head of the European Central Bank he said back in July that the ECB would do "all it takes" to stem the crisis.

But he qualified that with the comment "within our remit" meaning there are clear limits to what the ECB can do - notably keeping within the confines of what's politically acceptable to creditor nations, such as Germany, which are expected to support bailouts of indebted and cash-strapped countries such as Greece and Spain.

The guts of Draghi's plan is to launch a sovereign bond-buying programme by the ECB to ensure stricken countries can access cash to keep their spending programmes on track. It will buy only short dated bonds of three years or less and will drain money from the eurozone monetary system elsewhere to compensate for the cash it is injecting under the new plan. This makes it different from our own quantitative easing programme which is designed to pump additional money into the UK economy whereas the ECB scheme will be neutral, or "sterile" in the parlance.

This neutrality in terms of monetary policy will probably make it more accceptable to German hawks who fear inflation. The bond-buying programme will also come with conditions. Countries such as Spain, which is widely expected to be the main beneficiary of the plan, will have to formally ask to take part in the programme and will have to accept austerity measures imposed on it by the ECB before the cash starts to flow. Spain, however, has been suggesting it won't be accepting any loss of sovereignty over its policy-making powers.

07.48 The EU has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of solar panels and their key components originating in China.

EU Pro Sun claimed in its complaint that solar panels and their key components imported from China enter the European market at prices below market value.

07.40 French unemployment has hit a 13-year high. It rose from 10pc to 10.2pc in Q2. Youth unemployment now at 23.5pc.

07.33 Mario Draghi has delivered his radical bond buying plan to the ECB?s Governing Council in a move designed to equip the eurozone with a powerful new weapon to curb its debt crisis, writes Louise Armitstead:

Leaked versions of the Draghi Plan revealed that the ECB president has proposed unleashing a bond buying effort that would be ?unlimited?. The central bank would also relinquish its senior status among creditors, a measure seen as critical to encouraging private bond investors.

The plan would stop short of British and American-style quantitative easing (QE) because the ECB would still seek to ?sterilize? its bond purchases, or take the equivalent amount of money out of the system elsewhere.

The discussions will go on this morning, but reports are that an agreement is not far away. We'll bring you news on that as it comes in.

07.30 Good morning and welcome back to our live coverage of the European debt crisis.

Debt crisis live: archive

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568796/pr//s/23208a76/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cfinance0Cdebt0Ecrisis0Elive0C95236810CDebt0Ecrisis0Elive0Bhtml/story01.htm

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